President Bola Tinubu's response to Independence Day protests reveals the extent to which his government is out of touch with reality
On October 1st, as Nigerians commemorated their country's 64th Independence Day, large-scale protests across the country might have been expected. After all, the country is in a sorry state. In an address to his people, the President himself acknowledged widespread public concern about the cost of living and collapsing security. However, the demonstrations were far smaller than some had anticipated.
Naturally President Bola Tinubu sought to spin this to his advantage, presenting the relatively modest turn out as evidence that frustration with his regime had subsided. Nothing could be further from the truth. Make no mistake—the reality on the ground is grim, and public discontent is as high as ever. Only now, citizens are up against a regime which has no qualms whatsoever with employing repression and fear to silence those who speak uncomfortable truths. What Tinubu wants is the façade of business as usual – and he stops at little to get it.
The way Bola Tinubu's government approached the planned protests on October 1stindicates a regime heavily focused on self-preservation. Little to no interest is being paid to addressing very real grievances. Instead, energy is being directed at suppressing opposition and undermining critics. Amnesty International's Nigeria Director, Isa Sanusi, highlighted this bleak state of affairs,statingon October 2nd:
"The Nigerian authorities must end their repressive approach to peaceful protests and listen to critics, as the country faces its worst economic crisis in three decades. Yesterday, people that turned out to peacefully protest were met with unnecessary andexcessive use of tear gasand arbitrary arrests, especially in Abuja."
This year's protests were not smaller than anticipated because Nigerians have acquiesced to the situation on the ground. They have and will not accept the high cost of living or the government's inability to address the insecurity which they face on a daily basis. What many, especially in the international community, did not see, was the extent to which the machinery of the state was harnessed to prevent people from taking to the streets. Heavily armed security forces; strategic barricades; and fear of police brutality kept people at home – and who can blame them, for in Nigeria, those who openly oppose the embattled regime often meet a sorry fate.
The heavy use of force on October 1stis hardly a new strategy, with similar, even more repressive measures facing citizens who partook in the 2020 #ENDSARS protests, which saw the governmentfound guiltyof human rights abuses by the Abuja-based Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Court of Justice. Efforts to seek some form of justice for the victims of police brutality in 2020,which according toAmnesty International saw almost 60 protesters killed (the real number is probably far higher) have not deterred Tinubu. Far from it. In fact, the state continues to up the ante, increasingly responding to peaceful protests with violence, and arbitrary arrests used to intimidate those brave enough to speak out.
This crackdown should be particularly concerning to the international community. Clearly Tinubu is feeling so insecure that his administration will not tolerate criticism of any kind, even the most peaceful of protests. Witness the arrest of protest organizers in Kano and Plateau, where activists are still being held incommunicado without access to lawyers. At least five of those detained remain in unknown locations. This is what happens to critics of the regime in Nigeria: they have a disturbing propensity to be disappear – or rather, to be disappeared.
In his October 1stintervention, President Tinubu merely insulted his people with platitudes. Urging Nigerians to exercise "patience" as they endure an economic situation he called "necessary" for long-term reform, he drastically downplayed the scale of desperation among those who can barely afford to eat. His so-called reforms have been in the works for almost a year and a half now, since President Tinubu wassworn inon May 29th2023 – and are yet to bear positive fruit. When he took office, he hailed what he called "our enduring faith in representative government." His people are losing that faith.
To those living through the harsh realities of soaring inflation, rampant unemployment, and spiralling security crises, his Independence Day message rang as hollow as his inaugural address. Despite vast evidence to the contrary, Tinubu tried to present his controversial reforms as effective, suggesting they are beginning to improve the lives of citizens. With quite some audacity, he went so far as to claim that Nigeria was "winning the war" on violence in the north. The fact that violent crime, terrorism, and kidnappings continue to plague large parts of the country, especially that area, appears to have escaped him.
As the people of Nigeria wonder how much longer they must suffer, Tinubu appears breathtakingly out of touch. While he claims victory over violence, families in northern Nigeria are still burying their dead. While he claims to be addressing soaring inflation and other cost of living challenges, citizens everywhere are finding it increasingly difficult to afford basic necessities. And while the administration continues to maintain that its removal of fuel subsidies will aid climate action and fund transportation and energy investments, many Nigerians can barely afford to power their homes. These are the conditions that protesters sought to draw attention to on October 1st. Instead of addressing the issues head-on, the government opted to silence the voices of the people with force.
The relative calm of this year's protests should not be misinterpreted as acceptance. It is a reflection of a populace trapped between mounting frustration and a government willing to go to great lengths to crush dissent. As Amnesty International highlights, repressive measures taken by the state to neuter planned protests are not isolated incidents but part of a growing trend. As the human rights charity put it: "What happened on October 1stshows the Nigerian authorities are not relenting in their crackdown on dissent." The world must take notice, not just of the few who were brave enough to take to the streets, but of the millions whose frustrations continue to simmer beneath the surface—silenced, but not forgotten.