In recent days North Korea has become a problem child not only for China but for the US as well. Its dictator Kim Jong Un who rules by fear of persecution or death to those people he considers disloyal to his regime, a characteristic that all dictators have to perpetuate their rule. Adolf Hitler who had fought in the First Great War had this characteristic in abundance and took advantage of the burning of Reichstag and total disregard of the treaty he had signed with the Soviet Union. Recently White House confirmed that North Korea—a country with few allies and little money—had sent thousands of soldiers to join Russia in its war against Ukraine. But sending personnel marks a new level of coordination. There are other signs of warming ties, too. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip to North Korea in over two decades.
CHINA’S DISPLEASURE OVER RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA TIES
That proximity has irked China, North Korea’s main backer. Chinese officials fear that Russia’s influence over the insular dictatorship is growing at China’s expense. They also worry that the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia will strengthen military cooperation in response to Russia and North Korea’s newfound closeness.
Over the past year, Beijing has chosen to react to Pyongyang’s collaboration with Moscow by publicly courting North Korea’s adversaries. For instance, in May, China held a trilateral summit with South Korea and Japan after a five-year hiatus. Russia and North Korea signed an agreement on boosting economic cooperation following a meeting between trade officials in Pyongyang. Hungary will install additional air defense systems in the northeast of the country due to concerns over the fighting in Ukraine spreading into Hungarian territory. The Hungarian defense minister said the threat of escalation between Ukraine and Russia is “greater than ever.”
Russia became the top supplier of natural gas to the European Union in September for the first time since May 2022, according to a calculation by Russia’s RIA Novosti using Eurostat data. European purchases of Russian gas in September were valued at 1.4 billion euros ($1.47 billion), an increase of a third over the previous September. Roughly forty percent of the supplies is liquefied natural gas and sixty percent is pipeline gas.
CHINA-SOUTH KOREA HOLD SECURITY DIALOGUE
Chinese and South Korean officials held a security dialogue in Seoul—the first such meeting in nine years. This seeming friction between China and North Korea has tantalized many Western security analysts, who have argued that the United States and its allies should try to drive a wedge between China and North Korea. Such an effort, however, would be futile. Despite signs of tension between the two countries, North Korea is overwhelmingly reliant on China. Nearly all of its trade, for instance, is with China. The countries have not always seen eye to eye but their relationship has never come close to splintering.
WHAT THE USA SHOULD DO?
Instead of focusing on what could divide North Korea from China, the United States should collaborate with the Chinese government to rein in North Korea’s volatile behavior. Both the United States and China are ultimately invested in maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula. Working together to restrain the North Korean regime is the best way to achieve it.
Although North Korea is often imagined these days as a mere satrap of China, it is not, in fact, a Chinese vassal, and it has long sought to achieve a great degree of autonomy in its foreign policy. The two countries have endured many moments of friction in their relationship. The fact that China tolerated open criticism of North Korea’s leadership put further strain on the relationship between the two governments. During the rapprochement between China and the United States in the 1970s North Korea hosted Soviet naval ships in its ports and allowed Soviet fighter jets to enter North Korean airspace.
CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC CONTACT WITH SOUTH KOREA.
Throughout the 1980s, in response to North Korea’s tilt toward Russia, China increased its diplomatic contacts with South Korea. Relations between China and North Korea hit another low point in 1992, when China formally established diplomatic relations with South Korea against Kim’s wishes. China further irked North Korea by joining international sanctions against Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programs in 2006. Pyongyang, for its part, often acted without consulting Beijing on matters that could seriously affect China’s security. In 2006, following North Korea’s first nuclear test, Beijing accused Pyongyang of “brazen” action, a term rarely used in official Chinese statements. North Korea’s nuclear tests violated a treaty between the two countries that requires them to “consult with each other on all important international questions of common interest.”
WHY NORTH KOREA TURNED TO RUSSIA
Unsure of China’s intentions, North Korea has turned to Russia for economic, diplomatic, and military cooperation. Through these punitive measures, China is not just trying to chastise Pyongyang for cozying up to Russia; it’s also seeking to curry favor with the United States and Europe. Since the summit between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden in November 2023, Beijing has appeared determined to stabilize U.S.-Chinese relations so that it can still attract foreign investment from Western countries and maintain strong trading ties with them. In this context, North Korea’s belligerence toward South Korea and Japan and its military support of Russia has become a liability for China’s engagement with the West, because the United States and Europe see China as North Korea’s patron, and therefore as partly responsible for Pyongyang’s behavior.
UNCERTAINITY IN CHINA IF NORTH KOREA IS PUSHED TO A CORNER.
It is highly uncertain—even to China’s leadership—how Pyongyang would act if backed into a corner. In the worst-case scenario, Pyongyang may resort to attacking South Korea to deliberately create an external crisis, forcing China to intervene on North Korea’s behalf. Therefore, Beijing has to carefully assess the risks when considering how much it can push North Korea. In the current era of U.S.-Chinese strategic competition, North Korea’s value to China extends beyond its role as a buffer zone between Chinese and U.S. forces. From Beijing’s perspective, during a conflict with the United States over Taiwan, maintaining close ties with North Korea is advantageous because Pyongyang can help tie down U.S. troops in the region by keeping open the possibility of another war. But it remains uncertain whether Beijing would coordinate with North Korea before taking military action against Taiwan or whether they would even want to coordinate such involvement if it could lead to conflict spreading from the Taiwan Strait to the Korean Peninsula.
US SHOULD PREVENT OUTBREAK OF WAR ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA
To avoid such an outcome, the United States and its allies should focus on identifying interests they share with China: namely, preventing the outbreak of a war on the Korean Peninsula. Expecting Beijing to take extreme measures, such as suspending oil supplies or humanitarian aid to North Korea, is unrealistic. Instead of driving China and North Korea apart, Washington should try to capitalize on Beijing’s power over Pyongyang by urging China to clearly communicate two redlines to its partner.
First, North Korea must refrain from directly assaulting South Korean lives and property, as it did in the 2010 Cheonan torpedo attack and Yeonpyeong Island shelling. Since these incidents, South Korea’s military doctrine has become far more offensive. Any North Korean attack, even on a limited scale, would trigger South Korean retaliation, and could spiral into all-out war. Second, North Korea must avoid conducting its seventh nuclear test. A seventh test would likely be geared toward developing a nuclear weapon with a small yield that would be easier to deploy. Such a test would be a sign of China’s weakening influence over Pyongyang and could spur Seoul to try to acquire nuclear weapons of its own—a position that both South Korea and the United States officially oppose but is gaining traction in Western policy circles.
DEEPENING TIES WITH RUSSIA POSES CONCERN RELATING TO WAR IN UKRAINE AND SECURITY ON KOREAN PENINSULA.
The deepening ties between Russia and North Korea have sparked significant concerns in the US regarding the potential impact on the war in Ukraine and security on the Korean Peninsula. But the rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang has also caused mixed feelings in Beijing, as they create new uncertainty for China. Despite being North Korea’s neighbor, economic lifeline and formal ally, China’s relations with North Korea are far from close, as recent developments indicate. North Korea’s condemnation of a joint statement by South Korea, Japan, and China during their first trilateral summit since 2019 was seen as a rare rebuke against China. The statement mentioned denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang’s provocative actions around the same time further signaled its displeasure with the summit. It is remarkable that the Kim regime chose to launch a military spy satellite into orbit during a major diplomatic initiative involving China. The last time North Korea clearly sought to embarrass China was shortly prior to the inaugural Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in May 2017, when it conducted a missile launch from a base near the Chinese border. Since then, the regional dynamics have shifted significantly.
IMROVEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH CHINA WITH APPEARANCE OF XI-JINPING.
After hitting their lowest point in decades in 2017, China-North Korea relations began to improve significantly following the first meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un in March 2018. Despite having met five times since then, their relationship is not back to being “as close as lips and teeth,” as described once by Mao Zedong. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s isolation from the West has led to a deepening of relations between Moscow and Pyongyang, resulting in enhanced military cooperation between the two states. It is believed that in exchange for large amounts of North Korean munitions and ballistic missiles for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow is providing North Korea with military technology, increasing Pyongyang’s military capabilities.
CLOSE RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA RELATIONS POSESS A CHALLENGE TO THE WEST
Beijing, a key partner of both Pyongyang and Moscow, has refrained. However, the Chinese media was quick to blame the United States claiming that its “hostile” policy has driven Russia and North Korea closer together, thereby undermining the security situation in both regions. The Chinese portrayal of the United States as the primary instigator of tensions reflects China’s belief that Washington is its greatest threat and enemy, not Pyongyang. In response to North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities, the United States has strengthened its military cooperation with South Korea and Japan, much to China’s dismay. Beijing has long accused Washington of using the North Korean nuclear issue as a pretext to expand its military presence in the region, thereby further exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
WHAT DOES WASHINGTON WANT?
Most of China’s foreign policy thinkers believe that Washington’s overall goal is not to deter North Korea but to contain China. Given that China views its foreign policy through the lens of its broader rivalry with the United States, both in Asia and globally, it is highly unlikely that Beijing will exert pressure on on either North Korea or Russia to resolve the conflicts in Northeast Asia or Europe. For China, the Kim regime remains an important buffer zone against an increasing encirclement by the U.S. and its allies, while Russia serves as an important ally in countering a U.S.-led world order. However, Beijing’s choice to not “interfere” might, in the long run, undermine its own strategic interests. By staying on the sidelines as ties between Russia and North Korea deepen, China risks potentially exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
WITH RUSSIAN HELP CAN KIM JUNG UN DEVELOP NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES?
With Russia’s help, the Kim regime is likely to accelerate the development of its nuclear capabilities. This could lead to a stronger response from the United States, and, in a worst-case scenario for Beijing, lead up to the formation of what the Chinese call a U.S.-led “Asian NATO” aimed at targeting China. Furthermore, an emboldened North Korea increases the possibility of a more aggressive and provocative behavior, possibly stepping up its weapon testing or, even more concerning, conducting a seventh nuclear test. This inevitably would place China in a position where it is exposed to the escalation of conflicts it prefers to avoid. As a result, Beijing would face intense international pressure, particularly from the United States, to take a stronger stance against the Kim regime.
DESPITE BEIJING’S TOTAL SUPPORT FOR PYOGYANG RELATIONS WITH RUSIA IS A GREAT WORRY.
Despite Beijing’s economic and diplomatic support for Pyongyang, they are anything but close friends. The very fact that Kim’s first post-pandemic foreign trip was to Russia rather than China raises questions about the current state of their relationship. While Kim Jong Un has now held two summits with Putin in less than a year, Xi Jinping has not met the North Korean leader since 2019. Moreover, North Korea’s efforts to strengthen its ties with Iran further alleviate its isolation signaling a strategic attempt toward diversifying its alliances and bolstering its nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation. These new dynamics significantly complicate China’s balancing act in the region.
NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS IN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE
In November 2024 Asia Policy Institute for China analysis has revealed confirmation by the White House that North Korea — a country with few allies and little money — had sent thousands of soldiers to join Russia in its war against Ukraine. Pyongyang was already supplying Moscow with weapons: according to the Times of London, half of Russia’s shells used in the war have come from North Korea. But sending personnel marks a new level of coordination. There are other signs of warming ties, too. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first trip to North Korea in over two decades. That proximity has irked China North Korea’s main backer. Chinese officials fear that Russia’s influence over the insular dictatorship is growing at China’s expense. They also worry that the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia will strengthen military cooperation in response to Russia and North Korea’s newfound closeness.
CHINESE REACTION TO NORTH KOREA’S TRUANCY
Over the past year, Beijing has chosen to react to Pyongyang’s collaboration with Moscow by publicly courting North Korea’s adversaries. For instance, in May, China held a trilateral summit with South Korea and Japan after a five-year hiatus. Coincidentally it coincided with Putin’s visit to Pyongyang. Chinese and South Korean officials held a security dialogue in Seoul — the first such meeting in nine years.
CONCLUSION
This seeming friction between China and North Korea has tantalized many Western security analysts, who have argued that the United States and its allies should try to drive a wedge between China and North Korea. Such an effort, however, would be futile. Despite signs of tension between the two countries, North Korea is overwhelmingly reliant on China. Nearly all of its trade, for instance, is with China. The countries have not always seen eye to eye over the past 75 years, but their relationship has never come close to splintering. Instead of focusing on what could divide North Korea from China, the United States should collaborate with the Chinese government to rein in North Korea’s volatile behavior. Both the United States and China are ultimately invested in maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula. Working together to restrain the North Korean regime is the best way to achieve it.