Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States and his anticipated inauguration on January 20, 2025, herald the beginning of Trump 2.0. This coincides with transformative political developments in Bangladesh following the July Revolution. Together, these shifts have set the stage for a recalibration of the U.S.-Bangladesh bilateral relationship, presenting a mix of opportunities and challenges against the backdrop of global realignments.
The July Revolution: Charting a New Political Era in Bangladesh
The July Revolution marks a watershed moment in Bangladesh’s political trajectory. Triggered by systemic corruption, dwindling public trust, and authoritarian governance under the long-standing rule (2009-2024) of Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL), the revolution was spearheaded by youth protests, largely driven by Gen Z activists. This movement culminated in the ousting of Hasina, whose government had been criticized for voter suppression, media censorship, and political persecution.
The revolution installed an interim government led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. This transitional administration faces daunting challenges, including dismantling politicized state institutions, managing violent disruptions by pro-BAL factions, and addressing public demands for sweeping democratic and socio-economic reforms. There is also an underlying fear of counter-revolutionary efforts. Moreover, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the primary opposition party, is pressuring the interim government to hold elections swiftly. While the interim government initially garnered widespread support, frustrations over slow reforms and political instability have tempered public optimism.
This period of political upheaval presents an opportunity for Bangladesh to redefine its foreign policy and rebalance relations with global powers, particularly the U.S. and China. However, navigating these competing influences will require deft diplomacy and careful prioritization of national interests.
U.S. Frustrations with the Hasina Regime
For years, Washington expressed concern over the erosion of democratic norms in Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina’s government. Her administration faced consistent criticism for suppressing dissent, curbing press freedoms, and consolidating power through manipulated elections. These issues led to Bangladesh’s exclusion from President Biden’s Democracy Summits and drew pointed criticism from U.S. officials. Ahead of Bangladesh’s 46th Independence Day, President Biden sent a letter emphasizing the importance of democracy, human rights, and free elections—clear signals of U.S. discontent with Hasina’s governance.
Now, Dr. Yunus’ interim government provides an opportunity for a reset. At the UN headquarters in September 2024, President Biden publicly congratulated Yunus on his appointment, expressing optimism about Bangladesh’s democratic transition and pledging U.S. support for the country’s reform agenda. This marked a shift in tone and opened avenues for greater bilateral cooperation, particularly in governance and institutional rebuilding.
Trump 2.0: A Different U.S. Approach to Bangladesh
Donald Trump’s re-election signals a return to his hallmark “America First” policy. He prefers bilateral deals over multilateralism, and he is skeptical of treaties and alliances, preferring competition to cooperation. This approach, combined with his administration’s heightened focus on countering China’s influence, presents both opportunities and challenges for Bangladesh as it navigates its transitional period.
However, Trump’s personal animosity toward Dr. Yunus complicates the potential for collaboration. Yunus’ longstanding ties to prominent Democratic figures, including Bill and Hillary Clinton, Alexander Soros, and President Joe Biden, have placed him at odds with Trump and influential Republicans. Yunus has been a vocal critic of Trump, describing his 2016 victory as a “solar eclipse” that brought “dark clouds” over the world. He said, "Trump's win has hit us so hard that this morning I could hardly speak. I lost all strength. Should I even come here? Of course, I should, we must not allow this lapse into depression, we will overcome these dark clouds.". These comments, coupled with allegations that Yunus contributed to anti-Trump efforts during the 2016 election, reportedly angered Trump.
In the wake of Trump’s first victory, a Bangladeshi delegation visiting Washington was met with pointed remarks from Trump himself. Reportedly, Trump asked, “Where is the micro-finance guy from Dhaka?” and followed with, “I heard he donated to see me lose.” This animosity highlights personal grievances that could hinder productive U.S.-Bangladesh relations under Trump’s leadership.
More recently, during the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Trump stoked controversy by condemning alleged violence against Hindus in Bangladesh in a Diwali message posted on X (formerly Twitter). Referring to these events as “barbaric violence,” Trump claimed such incidents “would have never happened” under his administration, aligning his critique with an anti-Democrat narrative and seeking to appeal to Hindu-American voters. Such statements add further strain to the already delicate relationship between the Trump administration and Bangladesh’s interim government.
Strategic Dynamics in U.S.-Bangladesh Relations
Geopolitical Imperatives
Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal and its integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) make it a critical player in South Asia. Under Trump 2.0, the U.S. is likely to intensify efforts to counter China’s influence, presenting Bangladesh with both risks and opportunities. On one hand, Washington may seek deeper economic and security cooperation with Dhaka; on the other, overdependence on the U.S. could strain Bangladesh’s ties with China, a key trade and infrastructure partner.
Bangladesh must carefully navigate these dynamics. China remains a significant economic partner, but concerns over Beijing’s “debt-trap diplomacy” loom large. Diversifying economic partnerships, particularly with the U.S., could help mitigate risks while fostering growth. However, Dhaka must also ensure it retains sovereignty and avoids entanglements that compromise its independence.
Economic and Trade Considerations
The U.S. is a vital market for Bangladeshi exports, particularly in textiles, which constitute a major share of the nation’s economy, contributing 11% to the country's GDP and accounting for over 80% of its total exports. However, Trump’s protectionist policies, including potential tariff increases, could disrupt this critical trade relationship. To mitigate such risks, Bangladesh should actively engage U.S. stakeholders to preserve favorable trade terms and explore new avenues for investment in technology, energy, and infrastructure.
Policy Prescriptions for Bangladesh
Bangladesh must prioritize strengthening its diplomatic engagement with the United States to reinforce bilateral relations. Direct dialogues with the Trump administration are crucial to emphasizing shared economic and strategic interests, while addressing any personal and political tensions, such as those between President Trump and Dr. Yunus. Dr. Yunus’s congratulatory message to Trump following his election victory has been regarded as a positive step, signaling an opportunity for fostering improved cooperation. This reflects the interim government's pragmatic approach to maintaining constructive relations with the U.S., a key player in global politics and trade.
Simultaneously, the interim government must take decisive steps to counter allegations of minority persecution. Indian media’s dissemination of misinformation, which exploits the sensitive issue of minority rights, poses a significant challenge to the government’s legitimacy. To address this, the interim government should leverage both domestic and international platforms. Domestically, Bangladeshi media must play a proactive role in disseminating accurate information to build a counter-narrative. Internationally, the government must engage directly with U.S. policymakers, think tanks, and advocacy groups to prevent misrepresentation and ensure a balanced understanding of the ground realities in Bangladesh. This two-pronged strategy would help mitigate the negative impact of misinformation and strengthen the country’s image globally.
In terms of regional and global engagement, Bangladesh should align itself with the U.S. vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, emphasizing economic collaboration rather than military alliances. This would allow Bangladesh to benefit from increased trade and investment opportunities while avoiding actions that might alienate key partners like China. Additionally, Bangladesh must deepen its cooperation with multilateral organizations, such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These platforms offer critical avenues for advancing development goals, securing climate finance, and promoting economic growth. By enhancing its contributions and visibility in these institutions, Bangladesh can diversify its partnerships and reduce its dependency on any single actor.
The government should also prepare for potential shifts in U.S. foreign aid policies, particularly reductions in funding for climate change and humanitarian initiatives. In response, Bangladesh must proactively engage with alternative donors, including the European Union, Japan, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, to secure necessary resources. Leveraging Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change, the government should advocate for increased climate financing through mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), while also pursuing regional initiatives under BIMSTEC and SAARC to address shared challenges.
Conclusion
The convergence of Trump 2.0 and Bangladesh’s political transition presents a unique moment in U.S.-Bangladesh relations. While challenges abound, particularly due to personal and political tensions, there are also opportunities for mutual growth. By adopting a proactive, balanced, and strategic approach, Bangladesh can turn this period of uncertainty into a foundation for stronger bilateral cooperation and lasting stability. The path ahead requires diplomacy, pragmatism, and a clear-eyed understanding of the complexities of global politics under a renewed Trump administration.